Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 14 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Model and ensemble guidance is well clustered in the Friday to Saturday time frame with seemingly overall above normal predictability. A 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model composite was preferred for best detail with consideration for the smoothing of less resolved smaller scale system variances. Forecast spread and uncertainty increases into longer time frames, so prefer to blend more compatible guidance from the GEFS/Canadian and especially the ECMWF ensemble means to best maintain WPC product continuity. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Ample and unsettling upper trough energy and height falls will increasingly work westward over the Interior and North Slope to undercut and split precursor upper ridging over the Mainland later week and the weekend, lingering with more uncertainty into next week. An Arctic front on the leading edge of strengthening high pressure will push down across the Mainland, interacting with moist flow to the north of well offshore of a northeastern Pacific/Gulf system to focus some precipitation along the southern to southeast coastal tier. A tightening pressure gradient between the strengthening Arctic high to the north and low pressure systems over the Gulf could bring some gusty winds particularly from the North Slope into the Interior to produce some areas of blowing snow and also enhanced gap flow over the Southeast. A partial transition back towards more southerly flow focused over the Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula may bring renewed precipitation chances into next week as a ridge builds northward over the Gulf/Southwest AK and in proximity of deepened northeast Pacific low pressure. An Arctic front pushing over western and southern/Southeast Alaska will usher in a period of colder, below average temperatures late next week/weekend for most of the state, mainly outside of the Aleutians and southwest Alaska. Daytime high temperatures will generally range in the negative single digits for the North Slope and eastern Interior, the single digits for the central Interior and Alaska Range vicinity, and the teens for the western coast. The Southeast will remain below average. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html