Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 644 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025 - 12Z Sat Feb 22 2025 ...Overview... A closed upper low will slowly weaken over the Aleutians next week. Meanwhile, another upper low will retrograde from the Bering Strait region on Tuesday back into eastern Russia near Kamchatka by Thursday. A western North American ridge stretching through the Panhandle and into the eastern mainland on Tuesday will slowly breakdown throughout next week. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Deterministic models were fairly varied at the beginning of the period with the UKMET a notable outlier. A general model blend weighted toward the 12z GFS/CMC was favored on day 4. The GFS is favored on day 5 due to perceived over amplification of a Gulf of Alaska shortwave in the 12z ECMWF/CMC. 00z CMCE/ECE are introduced to the blend on day 5 as well. The 12z GEFS is introduced to the blend on day 6 at the expense of the 12z Canadian because of the latter's apparent over amplification of a Bering Sea low, which is not in line with the rest of the deterministic guidance on location or intensity. The ensemble means are heavily favored on days 7 and 8. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Early-mid next week, low pressure systems tracking through the Aleutians are likely to produce rounds of precipitation and perhaps some gusty winds there. Southerly flow should allow for some precipitation eastward, leading to renewed rain/snow chances for the Alaska Peninsula to Southcentral areas Monday-Wednesday and perhaps into the Southeast. Thus a heavy precipitation hazard is depicted on our latest Hazards product. Some moisture may even penetrate into central portions of the mainland including parts of the Lower Yukon and Seward Peninsula on Tuesday. Temperatures for most areas will be above normal given the lingering upper ridge pattern. Kebede/Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html