Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 651 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 27 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 3 2025 ...General Overview... A strong storm system develops over the north Pacific, potentially under 960 mb, and tracks in a general northeasterly direction to the south of the Aleutians through the end of the week, and likely reaching a location a couple hundred miles southeast of Kodiak Island by Friday night. This will also increase chances for moderate to heavy precipitation near the southern coastal areas along with windy conditions. Meanwhile, an upper ridge axis is expected to extend from western Canada into the Interior through most of the forecast period, with gradually warming conditions for central and southern Alaska, and continued cold north of the Brooks Range where an arctic surface high will govern the overall weather pattern. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The big low pressure system south of the Aleutians late in the week has good overall model agreement, but there is still some uncertainty going into Saturday as the low potentially splits into two smaller lows, as suggested by the CMC and ECMWF. The GFS takes the low farther west across Bristol Bay, but all bring impacts with enhanced onshore flow and heavy precipitation/wind. Heading into next weekend, the models generally agree that a broad upper ridge will extend across the eastern mainland and western Canada, but vary more across the North Pacific with the next potential storm system to develop south of the Aleutians and a separate arctic upper low near eastern Siberia. The ensemble means were gradually increased to about half of the forecast blend by next Monday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... In terms of precipitation, multiple rounds of coastal rain and mountain snow can be expected for the southeast Panhandle region, and another surge of moisture in association with the big Pacific low late in the week will likely result in 1-3 inches of rainfall for parts of the Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and near the Prince William Sound, and heavy snow for the higher elevations. Widespread gale to strong force winds are likely across the open waters of the Gulf and potentially reaching some of the coastal zones, so this would create hazardous boating conditions. Temperatures are generally expected to be near to slightly above average across most of central mainland Alaska through the forecast period south of the Brooks Range, with gradually warmer temperatures expected each day. It should remain the case that the coldest conditions will continue to be across the North Slope and northward to the Arctic Coast where readings should remain slightly below seasonal averages with the Arctic high in place. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html