Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 650 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 14 Mar 2025 - 12Z Tue 18 Mar 2025 ...General Overview... A broad and elongated low pressure system is expected to be in place across the Gulf for the beginning of the forecast period Friday. This is followed by another potentially better organized storm system for early next week that will cross south of the Aleutians and then over the Gulf by next Tuesday. Meanwhile, a strong arctic surface high will be in place north of the Arctic Coast, with breezy to windy conditions north of the Brooks Range. ...Model guidance and predictability assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement across the domain with mainly mesoscale differences noted with the lows across the Gulf. The guidance diverges more going into Sunday, with the GFS depicting a stronger and faster low pressure system crossing south of the Alaska Peninsula, whereas the ensemble means suggest the low would be several hundred miles farther back to the west. There is also a relatively strong model signal for a third storm system approaching the western Aleutians by next Tuesday, so that will continue to be monitored going forward. The arctic surface high has good model agreement through the entire forecast period. The ensemble means were increased to about 50-60% by early next week. ...Sensible weather and potential hazards... Most of the mainland should be dry with the exception of some occasional snow showers across western portions of the Interior, mainly during the weekend in association with an inverted surface trough. The next chance of more impactful precipitation would be next Monday and Tuesday as the second storm system enters the Gulf and produces a potential atmospheric river event at the southern mainland coast and eventually southeast Alaska, with rain near the coast and heavy snow for the coastal mountain ranges. Windy conditions are likely for the North Slope and points north owing to a strong pressure gradient from the arctic high. No major temperature extremes are anticipated over the next week, with some slightly cooler than normal readings for the northern half of the state, and returning to slightly above average for the southwestern mainland by early next week. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html