Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 756 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 16 Mar 2025 - 12Z Thu 20 Mar 2025 ...General Overview... A weakening low pressure system is forecast to reach the British Columbia coast by Sunday morning. This is followed by another potentially better organized storm system for early next week that will cross south of the Aleutians and then over the Gulf by next Tuesday/Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a strong arctic surface high will be in place north of the Arctic Coast, with breezy to windy conditions north of the Brooks Range. A third system is likely to approach the Aleutians by the middle of next week and then enter the Gulf by next Thursday. ...Model guidance and predictability assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement across the domain for the upcoming weekend with mainly mesoscale differences noted. The models also have a reasonably good handle on the next storm system passing south of the Alaska Peninsula, with the latest CMC more aligned with the model consensus with the low compared to previous runs. The arctic surface high north of the Arctic Coast has good model agreement through the entire forecast period. For the storm system approaching the Aleutians late in the forecast period, the ECMWF is still on the slower side of the guidance, but then falls more in line by next Thursdat once the low center emerges over the Gulf. The ensemble means were increased to about half by the middle part of next week. ...Sensible weather and potential hazards... Most of the mainland should be dry with the exception of some scattered snow showers across western portions of the Interior, mainly during the weekend in association with an inverted surface trough. The next chance of more impactful precipitation would be next Monday and Tuesday as the second storm system enters the Gulf and produces an atmospheric river event at the southern mainland coast and eventually southeast Alaska, with rain near the coast and heavy snow for the coastal mountain ranges. This is close to meeting hazards level criteria, but will hold off until tomorrow to determine if a heavy precipitation area is needed on the hazards graphic. Windy conditions and some blowing snow are likely for the North Slope and points north owing to a strong pressure gradient from the arctic high. No major temperature extremes are anticipated over the next week. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html