Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 749 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 12Z Mon 17 Mar 2025 - 12Z Fri 21 Mar 2025 ...General Overview... The active storm track across the North Pacific continues through next week as a series of low pressure system steady track from east to west and enter the Gulf region. The first system of interest during this forecast period is expected to pass just south of the Alaska Peninsula Monday and then reach the northern Gulf Tuesday into Wednesday while weakening. The second storm system crosses the Aleutians mid-week and then enters the Gulf by late Thursday/early Friday, and the final storm appears on the distant horizon on Friday south of the central Aleutians. Most of these low pressure systems should be on the order of 975-990 mb. Across the mainland, a steady warming trend ensues as a warm front lifts northward towards the Brooks Range, while the Arctic Coast remains under the influence of a cold arctic surface high. ...Model guidance and predictability assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement across the domain for the beginning of next week with mainly mesoscale differences noted with the first low passing just south of the Alaska Peninsula, so a multi-deterministic model blend suffices as a starting point in the forecast process. For the storm system approaching the Aleutians mid-week, the GFS and the GEFS are generally a little faster compared to the ECMWF and the ECENS, and the GFS depicts a stronger triple point low development by Thursday night across the eastern Gulf. For the final low crossing south of the Aleutians Friday, the GFS is slower and stronger, whereas the CMC is weaker and farther to the southeast, with the ECMWF between these two solutions. The ensemble means were increased to about half by the end of next week to account for gradually increasing model spread across the domain. ...Sensible weather and potential hazards... The majority of the precipitation across the state will be next Monday and Tuesday as the first storm system enters the Gulf and produces an atmospheric river event at the southern mainland coast and eventually southeast Alaska, with rain near the coast and heavy snow for the coastal mountain ranges. This is now being depicted on the WPC hazards chart with the event spanning two days, with several inches of rainfall across the windward terrain. Windy conditions and some blowing snow are likely for the North Slope and points north owing to a strong pressure gradient from the arctic high early in the week. After most of the state starts off the week with slightly below average temperatures, a steady warming trend results in most of the Interior being above average to close out the work week. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html