Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 741 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 27 Mar 2025 - 12Z Mon 31 Mar 2025 ...General Overview... A broad upper low/trough is expected to encompass most of the Gulf region to close out the month of March, with embedded surface lows rotating around the main vortex. Most of the rainfall associated with this should be offshore, although some precipitation may reach the southern mainland coast by late Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong upper ridge becomes established over the central/western Aleutians and over the southern Bering Sea going into the end of the week and next weekend, with a warm front lifting northeast across western Alaska late in the forecast period bringing light snow ahead of it. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement across Alaska on Thursday, and therefore a general deterministic model blend serves as a good starting point in the forecast process. This also holds true going into Friday, although differences become greater with low pressure over the eastern Gulf. More noteworthy differences become apparent by Sunday and Monday, with the 12Z GFS more amplified and farther west with the upper ridge axis over the western Bering, whereas the ensemble means and CMC/ECMWF favor the ridge axis closer to the western Alaska Coast. The GFS is also stronger with a surface low over the central Gulf, so less of the GFS was used by this time. Given the deterministic spread by next weekend and Monday, the ensemble means accounted for about 50-60% of the model blend by that time. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The majority of the state should enjoy a tranquil and dry weather pattern for the end of the work week, with just a few showers and mountain snow showers for the southeast Panhandle region. Surface low re-development over the northern Gulf by the weekend may result in additional rain and mountain snow from the Kenai Peninsula to the Panhandle, but nothing appears to reach hazardous level criteria through the entire forecast period and no atmospheric river events are anticipated. Elsewhere across the state, warm air advection along and ahead of a warm front approaching from the Bering Sea will likely produce periods of light snow across portions of the western mainland late Sunday into Monday, and perhaps warm enough for some rain closer to the western coastal areas. Most of the western and northern mainland should be slightly below average for Thursday/Friday, followed by a warm-up to generally above average temperatures by next Monday with southwest flow ahead of the Bering Sea storm system. Portions of the eastern Interior will be slowest to erode the colder surface temperatures as the warm front crosses the state. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html