Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 623 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 28 Mar 2025 - 12Z Tue 01 Apr 2025 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Today's 12 UTC guidance suite features good overall agreement across and in the vicinity of Alaska Friday into Sunday and a GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend serves as a well detailed forecast starting point. More noteworthy differences become apparent later into early next week, especially with lows over the Gulf of Alaska and with general flow progression from the Bering Sea/Strait into the mainland. Prefer a solution closest to the ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means that offer the best cycle to cycle guidance continuity in line with WFO Fairbanks reasonings. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Most of the state should enjoy a generally benign and dry weather pattern for much this forecast period. An amplified and complex mean upper trough will encompass most of the Gulf of Alaska to close out the month of March, with embedded surface lows rotating around compact closed upper lows. Most of the rainfall associated with this should be offshore, although some precipitation may reach the southern mainland into the weekend. Expect some enhanced wind flow well on the backside of these lows from the southeast Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula into the western Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile, a strong upper ridge will become established over the Aleutians and Bering Sea this week, possibly shifting through western Alaska into next week. In this pattern, a mean upper trough will persist to the lee of the ridge over the Interior whose embedded vortices may focus and enhance some local snow chances in a cooled environment. Warm air advection along and ahead of a warm front approaching from the Bering Sea will likely then also produce some periods of light snow across portions of the western mainland late Sunday into Monday, and perhaps warm enough for some rain closer to the western coastal areas. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html