Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Valid 12Z Tue 01 Apr 2025 - 12Z Sat 05 Apr 2025
...North Slope high wind and blowing snow threat Monday into
Tuesday, with snowy flow from western Alaska to the Interior...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The 12 UTC cycle guidance solutions show reasonable agreement in
and near Alaska. A 12z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend again
serves as a solid and detailed forecast basis early on, before
some 12z NAEFS and 00z/12z ECWMF ensemble mean was used late in
the forecast period.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Surface low pressure will encompass portions of the Gulf of
Alaska and northeast Pacific early to mid next week as preceding
ridging near the Arctic Circle becomes too long in wavelength,
forcing a split mid- ridge not far from the International
Dateline which marches slowly across the Bering Sea and Bering
Strait. Mid to late next week, a large and potentially strong low
is expected to form across the northeast Pacific and start moving
north in AK's direction. Only light to moderate precipitation is
expected through next Wednesday before the southern cyclone
approaches, mainly near the upper trough and transiting shortwaves
ahead of the longwave feature.
Enhanced gap flow on the backside of the low in the Gulf of AK is
expected near the usual spots downwind of the AK Peninsula and
close to Kodiak Island, where gusts above 50 kts/58 mph are
expected on April 1. While warm core ridging across the Aleutians
gets significantly weakened Tuesday into Wednesday, it should
rebound northward to some degree late next week. Modest upper
troughing in the AK Interior may support some local snow.
Upstream, a cyclone exits eastern Asia during the short range
period and moves north of the North Star State. When combined
with a surface high near the Aleutians which could approach record
strength for April at times, a high wind and blowing snow threat
is slated early next week across Northwest Alaska and the North
Slope. Flow underneath the feature into western Alaska and the
Interior is expected to support periods with organized moderate to
locally terrain enhanced snows/winds, with gusts above 50 kts/58
mph expected on April 1-2.
Late next week towards next weekend, the large low south of AK
should cause an increase in onshore flow and requisite
precipitation for south-central AK and the AK Panhandle. Winds
are anticipated to rise to gale force and may approach storm force
next Friday into next Saturday, which bears watch.
Roth
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html