Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 748 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 12Z Wed 2 Apr 2025 - 12Z Sun 6 Apr 2025 ...General Overview... A generally mild pattern is expected to be in place across the Alaska domain for the middle to end of the week, with an upper level ridge axis building north into the central and eastern mainland. Surface low pressure and accompanying upper level shortwave is progged to clip the northwestern portion of the state mid-week, bringing some light rain and snow to much of the Interior through early Thursday. A larger low pressure system organizes over the Gulf and brings a return to coastal rain and mountain snow to southern Alaska late Friday and into the weekend. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite features decent overall agreement across the Alaska domain for the middle of the week with some mesoscale differences noted with the low reaching northern Alaska, so a multi-deterministic model blend suffices as a starting point in the forecast process. Looking ahead to the end of the week and beyond, the 12Z GEFS mean diverges from the overall consensus in suppressing the upper level ridge axis across the state, and has the Gulf low over the weekend to the east of the better clustered CMC/ECMWF/GFS/ECENS guidance. Therefore, the ECENS was favored much more than the GEFS for the Friday through Sunday time period. Overall model differences increase quite a bit going into Sunday, so the ECENS was increased to about 40% by this time. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Widespread light snow is expected across the northern half of the state on Wednesday in association with the polar low and the trailing cold front, and light rain for the lower elevations of the central/southern Interior. Some gusty winds may also accompany this front as it passes. Heavier precipitation becomes increasingly likely for the southern coastal areas from the Alaska Peninsula to the Prince William Sound and then western portions of the southeast panhandle going into next weekend. An expansive area of low pressure develops over the central/southern Gulf and slowly lifts north, bringing a return to moist onshore flow with coastal rain and mountain snow, which could be heavy at times. Gale force winds are likely over the open waters of the Gulf and gap wind events are also likely. Temperatures are generally expected to be above average across the majority of the state Wednesday, followed by a return to more seasonal readings by the end of the week behind the front. The mild conditions are likely to continue going into next weekend across the southeast portion of the mainland as the upper ridge is expected to persist and delay the arrival of any cold fronts. However, it does not appear likely that it will be warm enough yet for river ice break-up concerns for most areas. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html