Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 12Z Mon 14 Apr 2025 - 12Z Fri 18 Apr 2025 ...Gulf low pressure could lead to heavy precipitation and gusty winds for southern portions of Alaska this weekend... ...Overview... Guidance remains pretty consistent in showing a mean upper low moving into the Gulf this weekend. This supports surface low pressure in the Gulf region Sunday-Monday, eventually weakening as it lifts northward into the southern Mainland. Mean moist southerly flow near and east of the low will continue to bring locally heavy precipitation to southern portions of the state into Monday. Northerly to northwesterly winds and gap winds on the backside of the low may be brisk behind this low over the weekend. A second shortwave will shift through the Aleutians early next week, with a decently strong surface low lifting northward into the central Gulf by mid next week increasing precipitation chances across the Southeast. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the overall upper pattern, but with plenty of uncertainty in the timing of systems and details. The agreement concerning the upper low/surface low weakening in the Gulf early period was good enough to warrant a deterministic model blend for the first couple of days of the period. After that, there continues to be some timing and placement of the next deeper surface low lifting into the Gulf, driven by smaller scale details in energy around the mean upper shortwave/low. The CMC was on the slightly faster side of the guidance, while the UKMET (through day 6) was displaced more westward. Confidence in its exact track is low at this point, but the deterministic GFS and ECMWF were closest to the ensemble means and was the preferred solution (blended with the ensemble means) for the later period forecast. Placement, timing, and track of this low will have implications for precipitation amounts into parts of the Southeast/Panhandle mid next week. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Precipitation should be ongoing over the weekend as surface low pressure consolidates in/near the Gulf. This provides support for precipitation, with moderate to locally heavy amounts likely from the Kenai Peninsula into Southeast Alaska for the weekend and maybe lasting into Monday. Northerly to northwesterly winds on the backside of the low could be brisk to strong across much of this same region for the weekend until the low weakens early next week. Precipitation will wane somewhat Tuesday-Wednesday, but increase again, especially for parts of the Southeast by the middle of next week. Slightly above normal temperatures on Monday should moderate back to or slightly below normal as mean troughing establishes over the Mainland. The southern Coast/Southeast/Aleutians area should remain below normal much of the period. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html