Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 618 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 12Z Sat 19 Apr 2025 - 12Z Wed 23 Apr 2025 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Prefer a composite solution of best clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models as valid for the weekend. This solution has good ensemble support and continuity in a pattern with seemingly above normal predictabililty. Opted a switch to a blend compatible guidance from the 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means as valid for next week in a period with growing forecast spread. Manual adjustments were applied at WPC to show sufficient offshore low pressure system and wrapping wind strengths given likely support and to mitigate weakening by the blending process. WPC product continuity was reasonable. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Scattered rain and snow showers should continue across parts of the Mainland into the weekend with mean upper level troughing in place. The next organized storm system develops over the central/western Aleutians over the weekend and will likely track in the general direction of the southeast Bering Sea into early next week, bringing wrapping rain/snow and gusty winds. Ahead of this system, expect a building ridge axis from the Gulf to the Interior. This ridge breaks down by Tuesday as system energies regroup over the Gulf of Alaska with triple point low/frontal genesis that lingers/slowly propagate next midweek to moderately affect maritme interests and coastal southern to southeast AK. There is more uncertainty by these longer time frames, but another organized low in the series may also approach the Aleutians. In this scenario, moisture will work in particular to favored terrain of the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula by early next week and then Southeast Alaska with slow system translation. This does not appear to meet hazardous level criteria at this time. Temperatures are expected to be near to above average across central and western portions of the state, and below average across the northeastern mainland where the Arctic high will have more of an influence on the weather. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html