Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 650 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 04 May 2025 - 12Z Thu 08 May 2025 ...General Overview... Much of the southern coast and parts of the Southeast will remain in a wet pattern with the mean trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Onshore shore flow will promote multiple round of moderate rain and some snow further inland. Further west, a broad upper low is expected to cross the Bering by early next week. Meanwhile, the Arctic surface high will continue to be in place north of the state resulting in sustained polar easterlies north of the Brooks Range, and below average temperatures in many cases. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... During the extended period there will be a mean trough over the Gulf of Alaska, an Arctic high north of the state and a trough/low traversing the Bering Sea toward the Gulf. In general, the deterministic and ensemble guidance has a decent handle on the overall evolution of each feature. It was noted that the latest runs had an increase in initial clustering spread with the Gulf system but returned to average spread by Day 5. On the contrary, the Bering feature had a slight increase in initial clustering, but then quickly returned to a wide spread in solutions. WPC utilized a multi-model approach for the forecast, beginning with the 12Z CMC/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. The UKMET was dropped after Day 4 and replaced with ECMWF ensemble and GEFS means to help mute the noise within the guidance for the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea lows. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Wet and unsettled conditions will persist for the southern coast and the Panhandle. Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected as another storm system over the Gulf next weekend,but currently not expected to reach hazardous levels with that event. Below average temperatures will persist for the north and northeast parts of the state as a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain draped across the Interior for most of the forecast period. Temperatures are generally expected to be below average with the Arctic surface high continuing to govern the overall weather pattern. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html