Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 744 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025 Valid 12Z Mon 05 May 2025 - 12Z Fri 09 May 2025 ...Strong winds with moderate to heavy rain to impact southern parts of the state through Monday... ...General Overview... Stronger winds and moderate precipitation, and at times becoming heavy, is expected along the southern tier of the state and adjacent islands. Onshore shore flow will promote multiple round of moderate rain and some snow further inland. A broad upper low is crossing the Bering is expected to reach the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska by midweek which will usher in the next round of precipitation. The Arctic surface high will be decreasing in strength thus relaxing the easterly winds which will allow the below average temperatures of late will begin to moderate by the end of the extended period. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest guidance continues to depict a mean trough over the Gulf of Alaska, an Arctic high north of the state and a trough/low traversing the Bering Sea toward the Gulf of Alaska for the extended period. Overall, agreement is fair with both the Gulf of Alaska low and the Bering Sea low. The UKMET was significantly faster than the cluster for the Bering Sea and was deemed an outlier for this cycle. Although there is a fair amount of spread without the UKMET, consensus has the Bering Sea Low approaching the Aleutians/western Gulf by Thursday which will usher in another frontal system and round of precipitation to the southern part of the state. WPC utilized a multi-model approach for the forecast, beginning with the 12Z CMC/GFS/ECMWF. The ECMWF ensemble and GEFS means were added to the blend for all periods beyond Day 4 to help mute the noise within the guidance for the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea lows. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Strong wind and widespread rain will move onshore as a robust surface low and associated front tracks south of the Kodiak Island. Strong winds will impact the central Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, islands and the southern coast to about west of Yakutat. Moderate/heavy rain will spread from Alaska Peninsula/northern Kodiak Island to Malaspina Glacier. Higher elevations inland may have snow during this period. Below average temperatures across portions of the northern Interior will begin to moderate closer to seasonal average by the end of the extended period as the Arctic high weakens and the easterly winds decrease. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html