Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 605 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 06 May 2025 - 12Z Sat 10 May 2025 ...Strong winds with moderate to heavy rain to impact southern parts of the state through Tuesday... ...General Overview... Much of the southern coast will be impacted by strong winds and moderate/heavy precipitation as a low tracks across the Gulf Tuesday into Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper low crossing the Bering Sea will send another surface low pressure system toward the Aleutians and western Gulf by the end of the week renewing chances for some precipitation along the southern coast and Southeast. With the Arctic surface high deminishing temperatures across the Interior and northeast part of the state will begin to moderate closer to seasonal normal. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest guidance continues to depict a mean trough over the Gulf of Alaska, an Arctic high north of the state and a trough/low traversing the Bering Sea toward the Gulf of Alaska for the extended period. Overall, agreement is fair with both the Gulf of Alaska low and the Bering Sea low. The UKMET was significantly faster than the cluster for the Bering Sea and was deemed an outlier for this cycle. Although there is a fair amount of spread without the UKMET, consensus has the Bering Sea Low approaching the Aleutians/western Gulf by Thursday which will usher in another frontal system and round of precipitation to the southern part of the state. WPC utilized a multi-model approach for the forecast, beginning with the 12Z CMC/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. The ECMWF ensemble, GEFS and NAEFS means were added to the blend beyond 144-hr to help mute the noise within the guidance for the Bering Sea low. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Strong wind and widespread moderate to heavy precipitation will persist on the southern coastline in association will a robust low in stationed in the Gulf of Alaska. Winds and precipitation are expected to decrease significantly by Wednesday. Higher elevations inland may have snow during this period. Cloudy conditions will prevail as a mean trough will remain over the Gulf. Below average temperatures across portions of the Interior will begin to moderate closer to seasonal average by the end of the extended period as the Arctic high weakens and the easterly winds decrease. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html