Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 754 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Valid 12Z Wed 7 May 2025 - 12Z Sun 11 May 2025 ...General Overview... The strong low pressure system over the Gulf should be weakening by the beginning of the forecast period Wednesday, with a stationary frontal boundary draped across the Interior. This low weakens further going into Friday, while an organizing storm system approaches from the west and is in the vicinity of the Aleutians by next weekend. Meanwhile, the strong Arctic surface high across northern Alaska weakens through time. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z guidance is fairly well clustered for the middle of the week across mainland Alaska and with the weakening surface low over the Gulf, so a general deterministic mode blend works as a starting point in the forecast process. Looking ahead to the end of the week, timing and latitudinal differences increase with the next incoming storm system across the Aleutians, with the GFS/GEFS generally more progressive, and the ECENS slower than the model consensus, including the operational ECMWF. Model spread by next weekend is quite pronounced across the southern half of the domain to include the maritime areas with low confidence in any one particular solution, so more of an ensemble mean approach is best for this time range. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Winds and precipitation are expected to decrease across the southern coastal areas by Wednesday. Higher elevations inland will have snow during this period. Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail as a synoptic scale trough and embedded upper low will remain over the Gulf. Below average temperatures across portions of the Interior will begin to moderate closer to seasonal averages by the end of the extended period as the Arctic high weakens and the easterly winds decrease. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html