Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 759 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 8 May 2025 - 12Z Mon 12 May 2025 ...General Overview... The strong low pressure system over the Gulf early this week should be weakening and sinking to the south by the beginning of the forecast period Thursday, with a stationary frontal boundary draped across the Interior. Meanwhile, an organizing storm system approaches from the west and is in the vicinity of the Aleutians and southern Bering by next weekend. The strong Arctic surface high across northern Alaska weakens through time with a gradual warm up expected over the upcoming week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z guidance is fairly well clustered for Thursday across mainland Alaska and with the weakening surface low over the Gulf, so a general deterministic mode blend works as a starting point in the forecast process. Looking ahead to Friday, timing and latitudinal differences increase with the next incoming storm system across the Aleutians. Similar to yesterday, the GFS/GEFS are generally more progressive, and the ECENS/ECMWF slower. Model spread by Sunday/Monday is less compared to yesterday's Day 8 forecast, so ensemble means were increased to just half by next Monday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Winds and precipitation are expected to decrease across the southern coastal areas by Thursday. Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail as a synoptic scale trough and embedded upper low will remain over the Gulf. The next best chance for organized precipitation will be next Sunday as the next storm system arrives. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm up to above average levels across much of the Interior, with highs perhaps making a run at 70 degrees for some of the lower valley locations by next weekend. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html