Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 724 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 9 May 2025 - 12Z Tue 13 May 2025 ...General Overview... The strong low pressure system over the Gulf early this week should be weakening and sinking to the south by the beginning of the forecast period Friday, with a stationary frontal boundary draped across the Interior. Meanwhile, an organizing storm system approaches from the west and is in the vicinity of the Aleutians and southern Bering by next weekend. The strong Arctic surface high across northern Alaska weakens through time with a gradual warm up expected over the upcoming week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z deterministic model guidance is in good overall agreement across the domain to close out the work week. Similar to yesterday, the GFS and GEFS are a little faster with the low situated over the Bering Sea region, but close enough to be a part of the preferred model blend. Looking ahead to Sunday, the ECMWF and GFS both feature a developing surface low south of the Aleutians that appears distinct from the low over the Bering. Upon examination of the AIFS guidance, a solution closer to the CMC/UKMET is also possible with more of a surface trough, so the frontal boundary was depicted with a wave of low pressure along it south of the Aleutians. Towards the end of the period next Tuesday, the model consensus generally favors the idea of a surface low in the vicinity of the Alaska Peninsula, and a trough of low pressure extending west across the central Bering. The ensemble means were increased to about half by this time. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Scattered to numerous showers are likely to be ongoing across the southeast Panhandle region for the end of the week and perhaps into Saturday with onshore flow continuing east of the weakening Gulf low, but does not appear to be excessive. There could be an abatement in the precipitation by Sunday across much of south- central Alaska as the region will be between storm systems. With the next low pressure system from the Aleutians/Bering moving in by Monday/Tuesday, rain and mountain snowfall chances increase once again, mainly for the windward facing terrain. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above average across most of the mainland, with highs gradually warming each day with readings approaching 70 degrees for some Interior valley locations by early next week. The Arctic Coast has the coldest anomalies, but these too should moderate going forward. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html