Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 449 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 23 May 2025 - 12Z Tue 27 May 2025 ...Overview... Upper pattern over the high latitudes will feature weaker troughing over mainland Alaska and a rather persistent upper low in the Gulf. Stronger upper ridging south of the central Aleutians will eventually relax and stretch westward, further allowing troughing in the Bering to reload into the Gulf. The end result will be a progressive pattern with near normal temperatures and intermittent chances of rain for the southern/coastal portions of the state. With a storm track from the Bering to the Gulf, the best moisture plume should stay south of the Panhandle. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The ensembles remain in good agreement overall but struggle with timing of individual systems (to be expected). The ECMWF AI ensembles were just a bit faster with the flow than the operational version, which has been the case for the past day or so. The deterministic models have trended a bit quicker overall as well, and mostly clustered with the ensemble consensus. The 12Z ECMWF and Canadian were a better fit than the GFS for days 6-8, but otherwise a blended solution sufficed. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Weak troughing over the mainland may give way to some weaker ridging, allowing temperatures to moderate just a bit, depending on more uncertain Arctic shortwaves. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers/storms are possible this period over the interior. More focused rainfall can be expected over the Aleutians with each passing system and then along the northern Gulf Coast into the Panhandle. The amount of rainfall will depend on how close the parent low wobbles northward. Rainfall should be on the lighter side with any surge in mid-latitude moisture aimed into central/southern BC. Thus, no hazards were drawn on the day 3-7 hazards map. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html