Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 737 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 25 May 2025 - 12Z Thu 29 May 2025 ...General Overview... The southern portions of Alaska will continue to remain rather unsettled given the time of year with periods of rainfall likely each day from the Kenai Peninsula eastward to the southeast Panhandle region. A weakening low pressure system on Sunday will give way to an incoming low from the Bering that will set up over the central Gulf through the middle of next week, with moist onshore flow. Meanwhile, an arctic trough will brush by the northern third of the state through Monday and a weak upper ridge axis across the Interior, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite features better overall agreement across the Alaska domain for the upcoming weekend when compared to yesterday's guidance at similar time scales. The UKMET was a bit slower with the Bering low when compared to the model consensus, so it was weighted less in the model preference. Additionally, the 12Z GEFS mean was also to the model consensus through Tuesday, so this was favored slightly more than the slower ECENS. The guidance has also come into better agreement on a reinforcing trough/shortwave behind it, which will maintain the low over the Gulf longer. The ensemble means were increased to about half by next Thursday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Periods of rain and high mountain snow are expected from the Alaska/Kenai Peninsulas to the southeast Panhandle region, with the greatest coverage and intensity expected from Juneau and points south. A heavy rain area remains depicted in the WPC medium range hazards graphic for the 24th to the 28th given how late in the season this is, and the duration of the rainfall expected, even though it will not be as heavy as many early season events. Farther inland across the Interior, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely to develop in the presence of an unstable airmass, and lightning strikes from these storms may increase the threat of wildfires in the region. Temperatures overall are expected to be near to slightly above average by late May standards across the central and southern mainland, and slightly below north of the Brooks Range. Cooler conditions are also likely for the coastal areas and the near shore islands owing to increased cloud cover and rainfall. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html