Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 753 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 12Z Mon 26 May 2025 - 12Z Fri 30 May 2025 ...General Overview... The southern portions of Alaska will continue to remain rather unsettled given the time of year with periods of rainfall likely each day from the Kenai Peninsula eastward to the southeast Panhandle region. A weakening low pressure system this weekend will give way to an incoming low from the Bering that will set up over the central Gulf through the middle of next week, with moist onshore flow. Meanwhile, an arctic trough will brush by the northern third of the state through Tuesday and a weak upper ridge axis across the Interior, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement across the Alaska domain for the beginning of next week, and improved depiction of the arctic shortwave and front north of the Brooks Range, although the GFS is more amplified that the model consensus across this region. The guidance has also come into better agreement on a reinforcing trough/shortwave behind the Bering Sea low that enters the Gulf, which will give the low over the Gulf more staying power. The ensemble means were increased to about half by next Thursday/Friday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Periods of rain and high mountain snow are expected from the Alaska/Kenai Peninsulas to the southeast Panhandle region, with the greatest coverage and intensity expected from Juneau and points south. A heavy rain area remains depicted in the WPC medium range hazards graphic for the 25th to the 28th given how late in the season this is, and the duration of the rainfall expected, even though it will not be as heavy as many early season events. The highest QPF is likely to be south of the Sitka area based on the latest model guidance. Farther inland across the Interior, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely to develop in the presence of an unstable airmass, mainly between Anchorage and Fairbanks. Lightning strikes from these storms may increase the threat of wildfires in the region. Temperatures overall are expected to be near to slightly above average by late May standards across the central and southern mainland, and slightly below north of the Brooks Range. Cooler conditions are also likely for the coastal areas and the near shore islands owing to increased cloud cover and rainfall. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html