Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 743 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 12Z Sat 31 May 2025 - 12Z Wed 04 Jun 2025 ...Synoptic Overview... A large upper level low will be parked across the Bering throughout the long range period. This low will help direct various impulses of energy, mostly from the North Pacific, and circulate them around itself, eventually absorbing each low. As any North Pacific impulses round the southeastern side of the upper low, the surface fronts will move into Southcentral, and quickly dissipate as the fronts orthogonally cross the mountains. High pressure and upper ridging look to become established across the eastern Gulf and eastern Alaska, resulting in a prolonged period of tranquil weather, assuming this pattern remains in place into the middle of the upcoming workweek. Across Northern Alaska, there may be small upper lows that remain part of the broader trough, which could provide for windier and unsettled conditions along the Bering Strait coast, but otherwise a general cutting off of the energy coming from shortwave impulses from the Pacific should keep most areas quiet weather- wise. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The EC was largely removed from the forecast for being the outlier regarding the strength and track of the surface low over the southern Bering/eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula. The EC phases the energy far more than the other guidance, resulting in a much stronger low (977 in the EC at 12Z Sun vs. 990 on average in the other guidances a bit later). Since the other guidance were functionally the same (multiple weaker lows taking longer to merge into a weaker single low), they were blended together for the Days 4-6/Sat through Mon period. By Day 7 and beyond, the details become so unclear that a predominant ensemble blend was used, which blended out many of the forecast details by that time frame. Presumably the pattern will remain similar on Day 8 as it was on Day 4 with a low over the Bering and ridging over the eastern Gulf and Mainland, so it's likely those details will resolve in the coming days. Regardless, as is typical of late Spring/early Summer, there are no big storms in any larger percentage of the guidance. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... ...Heavy rain will impact portions of the Panhandle Friday as well as portions of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska through the weekend... && Wegman Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html