Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 544 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 12 Jun 2025 - 12Z Mon 16 Jun 2025 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The WPC Alaskan medium range pressures, winds, PoPs, and QPF were mainly derived from a composite blend of well clustered guidance of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian models early on, with some ensemble mean contribution from the EC/NAEFS to help deal with the detail issues that arise in and near the Bering Sea and with a retrograding system across the far northeast Pacific/Gulf of AK. Other grids were more reliant on the 19z NBM. This solution maintains reasonable product continuity in an active pattern. The guidance offers reasonably similar larger scale flow evolutions into next weekend with persistent ridging across the AK interior and with a persistent deep layer low near the southern Bering Sea/Aleutians. The least predictable system in this pattern is the cold low stalling near the AK Panhandle that the guidance suddenly retrogrades due to a more isolated closed low in the southern Bering and stronger/elongated ridging across interior AK and northwest Canada that would force it west to west-northwest, in today's version of the flow pattern. It remains to be seen if the guidance has locked in on this pattern as of yet, so confidence appears lower, no better than average. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Light precipitation and chances of such linger across Southeast AK and the AK Panhandle, now that the system is no longer forecast to drop southeast, out of the picture. They could fade by next Sunday. Rain chances are fairly high across western AK and the Aleutians as disturbances/low pressure systems move through the Bering Sea around the eastern side of the mean trough, which appears narrower than in Saturday's guidance. Periods of gales are expected near the Aleutians and AK Peninsula with gales also possible near the northwest coast; wind gusts are expected to remain below storm-force. As the flow becomes more southeast to east-southeast across southern mainland AK Friday through next weekend, disturbances in the flow and associated moisture increases will need to be watched for thunderstorm potential. Across the eastern interior, NBM probabilities of 80F+ high temperatures remain likely, which has led to low to mid 80s being explicitly forecast late week into next weekend. Probabilities of 90F+ are non- zero in a couple spots, but have not trended upward since Saturday. Stay tuned. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html