Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 530 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 13 Jun 2025 - 12Z Tue 17 Jun 2025 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The WPC Alaskan medium range pressures, winds, PoPs, and QPF were mainly derived from a composite blend of moderately well clustered guidance of the 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET, lesser weighting on the 12z GFS/12z Canadian solutions, with increased ensemble mean contribution from the EC/NAEFS -- this weekend into early next week -- to help deal with the detail issues that arise in and near the Bering Sea, south of the Aleutians, and with a system (or portion of a system) that may retrograde across the far northeast Pacific/Gulf of AK/coast of southeast and south-central AK. Other grids were more reliant on the 19z NBM. This solution maintains reasonable product continuity in an active pattern. The 12z UKMET/12z ECMWF guidance offers reasonably similar larger scale flow evolutions into next weekend with persistent ridging across the AK interior and with a persistent deep layer low near the southern Bering Sea/Aleutians and a cold low remaining near or south of the AK Panhandle early on. The least predictable system in this pattern is the cold low stalling near the AK Panhandle early on that UKMET/ECMWF guidance has trended southeast with, again, similar to the good consensus from this past Saturday. The 12z Canadian keeps it in place for a while before retrograding is west and merging it in with the system near the Aleutians, leaving another cold low to the west. Differences with the troughing across eastern Siberia and the Bering Sea leads to a wild 12z GFS solution that takes the cold low north into southern AK (hence its minority weighting). It remains to be seen if the guidance has a good grid on this pattern yet, so confidence appears no better than average. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Light precipitation and chances of such linger across Southeast AK and the AK Panhandle. They could fade during the latter half of Saturday. Rain chances are fairly high across western AK and the Aleutians as disturbances/low pressure systems move through the Bering Sea around the eastern side of an isolated cold low. Periods of gales are expected near the Aleutians and AK Peninsula through the period with gales also possible near the northwest coast Wednesday into Thursday; wind gusts are expected to remain below storm-force. As the flow becomes more east-southeast across southern mainland AK Friday through the weekend, disturbances in the flow and associated moisture increases will need to be watched for thunderstorm potential. Across the eastern interior, NBM probabilities of 80F+ and 90F+ high temperatures have risen, which has led to continuation of low to mid 80s being explicitly forecast late week into next weekend. Probabilities of 90F+ are over 30% across a small portion of eastern interior AK, resuming the upward trend noted this past Saturday. Stay tuned. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html