Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 541 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 12Z Sat 21 Jun 2025 - 12Z Wed 25 Jun 2025 ***Very warm conditions continue across central and eastern portions of the Interior into the weekend*** ...General Overview... The weekend will have a rather amplified upper level pattern in place across the Alaska domain, with a broad upper low centered over the general vicinity of the southern Bering, and an upper ridge extending north from the Gulf of Alaska to the central/eastern mainland. This will result in continued anomalous warmth for much of the Interior. The Bering closed low/trough makes a little more eastward progress going into early next week, and this will tend to displace the ridge axis some to the east and a slight cool-down across most of the mainland. A couple of relatively weak disturbances cross the North Pacific, but they don't appear to be impactful at this time. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite features very good synoptic scale agreement and therefore a multi-deterministic model blend suffices as a starting point in the forecast process. The UKMET becomes stronger with a triple point low that develops south of the Aleutians by Sunday, and the CMC becomes faster than the ensemble consensus with the main upper low from the Bering and takes it over the northern Gulf. Elsewhere across the domain, there is decent agreement even into early-mid next week, although mesoscale differences develop. Therefore, the ensemble means were gradually increased to about half by next Wednesday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The main thing making weather headlines will be the continued above average temperatures across much of the state, with a particular focus across the central and eastern portions of the Interior. The highest readings are likely across the Yukon Flats region from Friday through the weekend, with highs well into the 80s and this is depicted on the WPC medium range hazards chart. There will also be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop across mainly eastern portions of the Interior. More widespread showers and storms are possible going into Tuesday and Wednesday of next weekend as a frontal boundary slowly sinks southward and intercepts the warm airmass across the eastern Interior. Overall, there has been a slight upward trend in QPF across inland areas compared to yesterday's forecast, and less for the Alaska Peninsula and the Aleutians. More seasonable conditions are expected near the southern coast and the larger cities, with highs generally in the 50s and 60s. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html