Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 747 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 22 Jun 2025 - 12Z Thu 26 Jun 2025 ***Very warm conditions continue across central and eastern portions of the Interior into the weekend*** ...General Overview... The weekend will have a rather amplified upper level pattern in place across the Alaska domain, with a broad upper low centered over the general vicinity of the southern Bering, and an upper ridge extending from northwestern Canada to the central/eastern mainland. This will result in continued anomalous warmth for much of the Interior with highs in the low to middle 80s for the lower elevations. The Bering closed low/trough makes a little more eastward progress going into early next week, and this will tend to displace the ridge axis some to the northeast and potentially evolve into a closed upper high over the Yukon territory, and a slight cool-down across most of the mainland. A couple of weak to moderately strong disturbances cross the North Pacific, but they don't appear to be all that impactful at this time. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite features very good synoptic scale agreement on Sunday into early Monday and therefore a multi- deterministic model blend suffices as a starting point in the forecast process. The GFS becomes a stronger solution by Tuesday with a low developing just south of the Aleutians, and maintains this difference going through the middle of the week. Therefore, the ensemble means were gradually increased to about half by next Thursday, whilst decreasing the contribution from the GFS owing to the differences noted across the North Pacific. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The main thing making weather headlines will be the continued above average temperatures across much of the state, with a particular focus across the central and eastern portions of the Interior. The highest readings are likely across the Yukon Flats region through early next week, but now is just below hazards criteria and after consultation with the local forecast offices, the hazardous heat heat has been removed from the WPC hazards graphic. There will also be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop across mainly eastern portions of the Interior this weekend. More widespread showers and storms are possible going into Tuesday and Wednesday as a frontal boundary slowly sinks southward and intercepts the warm airmass across the eastern Interior. More seasonable conditions are expected near the southern coast and the larger cities, with highs generally in the 50s and 60s. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html