Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
708 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 12Z Thu 26 Jun 2025 - 12Z Mon 30 Jun 2025
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
Favor a blend of reasonably well clustered guidance of the 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET (60%) and respective ensemble means
(40%) in a pattern with above normal predictability and WPC
product continuity through medium range time scales. Opted to
manually deepen mainly offshore surface low pressure systems as
warranted by favorable upper support to offset weakening inherent
to a broad blending process used today. This correction was most
evident with depiction of an extratropicaL low pressure system
associated with newly formed T.D. 02W now over the western
Pacific that is slated to reach and impact the Aleutians and
Bering Sea by next weekend and possibly effect portions of the
southwest mainland by the beginning of the following week.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A lingering lower-level front across Interior Alaska may continue
to focus scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Brooks
Range and Interior this week as enhanced more broadly across the
region and the southern Alaskan tier by easterly waves on the
northern periphery of the main low positions. This rainfall may
prove helpful to mitigate some of the ongoing wildfire risk, but
not enough to fully reduce the threat.
Meanwhile, a series of ample energy transfers from the southern
Bering Sea and Aleutians toward the northern Gulf of Alaska by
later this week should favor development of enhanced rain chances
from west to east over the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island into
Southcentral then Southeast Alaska as low pressure waves/triple-
point lows eject eastward across the Gulf of Alaska to linger
through the next week as aided by aforementioned easterly waves.
There is a growing forecast signal to keep an eye on subsequent
extratropical low pressure system development and track into the
Bering Sea and vicinity next weekend that is associated with
newly formed T.D. 02W now over the western Pacific. This system
may offer deeper moisture with flow possibly slated to affect
southwest Alaska and downstream into early next week to monitor.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html