Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
548 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Valid 12Z Fri 27 Jun 2025 - 12Z Tue 01 Jul 2025
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
Favor a blend of reasonably well clustered guidance of the 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET for Friday/Saturday in a pattern with
above normal predictability and WPC product continuity. Moderate
extratropical system development associated with newly formed
T.S. Sepat now over the western Pacific to the southeast of Japan
is slated to affect the Aleutians and Bering Sea by the weekend
and with much uncertainty affect areas from the southwest
mainland to the Gulf of Alaska/vicinity into early next week.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A weakening lower-level front across northern Alaska may continue
to focus scattered rains across the Brooks Range into later this
week. Moderate showers across the Interior and southern/southeast
Alaskan will be locally focused by a lingering Southwest Alaska
upper trough/low late week and subsequent easterly waves onward
into next week around the northern periphery of a main Gulf of
Alaska low position. This rainfall may prove helpful to mitigate
some of the ongoing wildfire risk over the still warmed Interior,
but not enough to fully reduce the threat. Meanwhile, energy
transfer from the southern Bering Sea to the northern Gulf of
Alaska by later this week will also favor development of enhanced
rain chances from west to east over the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak
Island into Southcentral then Southeast Alaska as low pressure
waves/triple-point lows work over the Gulf of Alaska.
Upstream, moderate extratropical system development and track
into an unsettled Bering Sea this weekend is associated with
newly formed T.S. Sepat now over the western Pacific to the
southeast of Japan. This system may offer deepened moisture with
flow slated to affect the Aleutians and possibly Southwest
Alaska/Alaska Peninsula before with much uncertainty downstream
into the Gulf of Alaska given the current larger scale pattern.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html