Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 739 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 12Z Sat 28 Jun 2025 - 12Z Wed 02 Jul 2025 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite is in reasonably good agreement for the beginning of the period Saturday, but the Canadian global model begins to differ by Sunday across the Bering Sea region, and this becomes even more apparent going into early next week by holding onto a much stronger ridge. The GFS also differs by this time with a stronger low crossing the southern Bering Sea region, and overall forecast confidence drops to below average by Monday and beyond. Much of this uncertainty is related to the future track of what is now Tropical Depression Sepat, and how it will eventually affect the Alaska domain. The ensemble means were increased to about half by next Wednesday, and the Canadian model was not favored for this forecast package given the differences noted earlier in the forecast period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A weakening lower-level front across northern Alaska may continue to focus scattered showers and a few storms across the Brooks Range into later this week and Saturday. Moderate to locally heavy showers will be possible across the Interior owing to a lingering Southwest Alaska upper trough/low this weekend and subsequent shortwaves going into next week around the northern periphery of a main Gulf low position. This rainfall may prove helpful to mitigate some of the ongoing wildfire risk over the Interior, but not enough to fully reduce the threat. Meanwhile, energy transfer from the southern Bering Sea to the northern Gulf of Alaska will also favor development of enhanced rain chances from west to east over the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island into Southcentral then Southeast Alaska as low pressure waves/triple-point lows develop over the Gulf of Alaska. Upstream, moderate extra-tropical system development and track into an unsettled Bering Sea this weekend is associated with T.D. Sepat now over the western Pacific to the southeast of Japan. This system may result in deepened moisture with flow slated to affect the Aleutians and possibly Southwest Alaska/Alaska Peninsula before with much uncertainty downstream into the Gulf of Alaska given the current larger scale pattern. Hamrick/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html