Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 529 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 06 Jul 2025 - 12Z Thu 10 Jul 2025 ...General Overview... Warm core highs initially dominate portions of AK and eastern Siberia. With time, shortwaves within the arctic beat down the ridging across AK to various degrees, depending on the model, dropping a front to at least the Brooks Range, if not a little farther into the interior, particularly across eastern AK. To the South, a couple different surface lows within a slow- moving upper level trough keep southern AK rainy and unsettled. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The guidance shows various solutions with both the frontal progression into interior AK from the Brooks Range/North Slope and cyclone progression into southeast AK/the AK Panhandle. For the most part, the 12z ECMWF looks too emphatic in breaking down the AK ridge and bringing colder air into the interior, while the 12z Canadian is closest to the 12z NAEFS/00z ECMWF solutions in cyclone progression across the northeast Pacific and portions of the Gulf of AK. For WPC's forecast blend, a near even blend of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET was used this weekend for pressures/ winds/ frontal placement/ QPF and subsequent PoPs adjustments, with an even blend of ensemble means from the 00z ECMWF/12z NAEFS used early to mid next week to account for the guidance uncertainty. The remainder of the grids started with the 19z NBM before slight nudges were made for the 12z ECMWF and its ensemble mean. Due to the model spread, confidence in this choice is no better than average. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The influence of the strong upper ridge over portions of central and northern AK early on will be felt as high temperatures rise primarily into the 80s and 90s across the interior on July 5-6, with 70s and 80s on July 7, after which it drops into the 60s and 70s -- the heat early on is the primary forecast hazard for central AK. The interior thermal trough appears to be driving decent winds across portions of the northwest AK coast, though sub- gale, which then picks up behind a cold front as the warm core high erodes. A dusting of snow appears possible across higher elevations of the Brooks Range after the frontal passage. The guidance appears to use the incoming front, moisture moving in aloft from the Pacific, and shortwaves aloft to advertise heavy, possibly convective rainfall for the eastern interior on July 8-9 as an additional hazard. For southern portions of the state, lows tracking into the Gulf and general upper level troughing will bring in Pacific moisture from the south and southwest, resulting in unsettled weather with periods of heavy rainfall, particularly across the northern AK Peninsula, Kodiak Island, the AK Panhandle, and the Kenai Peninsula between July 5 and 8 which is the primary hazard for the region. Some of the highest elevations of southeast AK could see some accumulating snow. Gale-force winds are possible with these surface lows, particularly in places which normally experience gap enhancement within east-southeast flow ahead of the cyclone, though probabilities for storm- force winds remain quite low due to both expected cyclone strength and the lack of a strong surface high in the region. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html