Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service College Park MD 707 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 08 Jul 2025 - 12Z Sat 12 Jul 2025 ...Heavy Rain will impact the southern Panhandle Tuesday and Tuesday night... ...Synoptic Overview... A trough that has set up across the Arctic coast will work to guide a series of upper level lows originating in the Pacific across much of southern Alaska and the Panhandle into next weekend. This will support a generally unsettled pattern across the southern half of the state. Meanwhile, that same trough will support a stationary surface high over the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia remaining in place, driving cold northerly winds off the Arctic Ocean and into the North Slope and the Bering Strait, supporting dry, but cloudy and cooler than normal temperatures. A strong low will impact the Panhandle on Tuesday. More on this in the Weather/Hazards Highlights section below. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... A blend of the 06Z GFS, 12Z GEM, and 12Z EC were used with this update. This blend was largely predicated on a similar track for a low that starts the period over the central Aleutians and eventually tracks into the western Gulf by Friday, and likely into the northeastern Gulf by Saturday. While there were of course smaller differences such as the strength of this low and the exact placement, these three solutions were close enough in those details, as well as realistic enough in the track, to be the chosen model blend. In contrast, the 00Z EC was too fast and well too far south with the track of that low by Thursday, taking the low well south of the Gulf, an unlikely solution. Meanwhile, the 12Z GFS was much faster with the track of the low, and was thus an outlier from the much better agreed upon blend. Given that scenario, the 00Z EC and 12Z GFS were not included in the forecast. The ensembles and AI models generally agreed with the 3 model blend described above. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The heavy rain across the Panhandle Tuesday will be associated with a well-defined low that will start the day over the eastern Gulf and move inland. Upslope associated with the low on strong southwesterly flow will enhance the rainfall potential, especially in the higher mountains of the southeastern Panhandle, near Hyder. The rain will taper in intensity on Wednesday but not fully diminish until Wednesday night. Guidance has trended drier and weaker with this low, so this is a marginally hazardous rainfall scenario for this time of year, however upslope should still support areas of heavy rain. Elsewhere, no hazardous weather is expected. && Wegman Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html