Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service College Park MD 758 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 15 Jul 2025 - 12Z Sat 19 Jul 2025 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite initially features decent overall model agreement across the Alaska domain for early next week, but meaningful differences become apparent by Wednesday with an amplifying low pressure system in the vicinity of the Aleutians and a weakening low over the northern Gulf. The CMC deviates the most from the model consensus through the end of the week and is therefore not used in the preferred model blend beyond Wednesday. The GFS also strays from the consensus by having the Bering Sea low much stronger than the consensus and AIFS guidance, so it was also weighted less by the end of next week. The ensemble means were increased to about 2/3rds by next Saturday owing to greater than normal model differences at these time scales. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... A mild weather pattern will continue across mainland Alaska through next week with a weak upper ridge in place and a weakening low pressure system over the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop during the afternoon and evening hours across much of the Interior on Tuesday and potentially into Wednesday as well with moisture advecting northward across the state. Depending on what the Bering Sea low does and how strong it gets, an increase in rain and wind could be coming to portions of western Alaska for the middle to end of the week, but currently does not appear to be a hazards level event. For the southern coastal areas, on and off showers are likely through the upcoming week, but not a wash-out since there will likely be some sunny spells as well. Temperatures will likely be in the 70s to around 80 degrees for inland areas south of the Brooks Range, and 50s and 60s for the coastal areas. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html