Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 721 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 12Z Wed 16 Jul 2025 - 12Z Sun 20 Jul 2025 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite initially features decent overall model agreement across the Alaska domain for the middle of next week across the mainland. However there are differences already evident across the Bering and the Aleutians by this time concerning the large low and eventual triple point low development. The UKMET deviates the most from the model consensus through the end of the week with holding onto a separate surface low across the northern Gulf longer than the other guidance, and is therefore not used in the preferred model blend beyond Wednesday. The GFS has trended weaker with the Bering Sea low compared to yesterday's runs, and is now more in line with the consensus in that regard. Towards next weekend, the CMC erodes the surface high over the Gulf much faster than the more compatible GFS and ECMWF solutions. The ensemble means were increased to about 60 percent by next Sunday owing to greater than normal model differences at these time scales. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... A mild weather pattern will continue across mainland Alaska through next week with a weak upper ridge in place and a weakening low pressure system over the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop during the afternoon and evening hours across much of the Interior on Tuesday and into Wednesday with moisture advecting northward across the state. Depending on the Bering Sea low evolution and its proximity to the state, an increase in rain and wind could be coming to portions of southwestern Alaska for the end of the week, but currently does not appear to be a hazards level event. This would also help to disperse more of the wildfire smoke across western portions of the state. For the southern coastal areas, on and off showers are likely through the upcoming week, but not a wash- out since there will likely be some sunny spells as well. Temperatures will likely be in the 70s to around 80 degrees for inland areas south of the Brooks Range, and 50s and 60s for the coastal areas. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html