Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 754 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 18 Jul 2025 - 12Z Tue 22 Jul 2025 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12Z model guidance has come into much better synoptic scale agreement across the Alaska domain compared to this time yesterday. The Gulf low is now more in the short range time period, and the guidance has consolidated with the large Bering Sea low and the downstream upper ridge axis that builds northward from the Gulf to the southern mainland going into next weekend and beyond. Therefore, a multi-deterministic model blend works well as a starting point for Friday and into the weekend, and then a gradual increase in the ensemble means to about 40% by next Tuesday. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... A mild weather pattern will continue across mainland Alaska going into next weekend and early next week, with a building upper ridge from the Gulf by later in the forecast period. There will likely be in increase in rainfall coverage across southwestern Alaska on Friday, and another round of enhanced rainfall is possible going into Monday as well, but not reaching hazard level criteria. This would also help to disperse more of the wildfire smoke across western portions of the state. A welcomed return to drier and warmer conditions is expected for southeast Alaska as the ridge axis builds in. Temperatures will likely be in the 70s to around 80 degrees for inland areas south of the Brooks Range, and 50s and 60s for the coastal areas. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html