Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 737 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 27 Jul 2025 - 12Z Thu 31 Jul 2025 ...Overview... An elongated upper trough with a closed low will extend from the mainland into the Gulf while upper ridging will be over the Aleutians. Temperatures will warm from west to east. An associated surface frontal system will usher in a few rounds of precipitation for the Alaska Range southward along the southern coast to Southeast. Showers will also spread across portions of the Interior by mid week. The lows will be slow to move in the blocky pattern with an upper high north of the state, lasting into early next week while gradually weakening. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The models and ensemble means continue to have a good handle on the evolution of the large scale pattern through the extended period. The continues to be some increase in spread in regards to low placement and location of QPF for by next week. However, the guidance remains within the cluster for this blocky pattern with an upper high over the northeast Pacific and another in the Arctic Ocean, with Alaska's upper trough/low in between. In previous runs, the GFS was noted to be on the north/east side of the cluster which would suggest higher QPF to the Panhandle and parts of the southern Coast for later in the period. Today the GFS and CMC have trended toward each other while the EC is suggesting a minor retrograde of the low position by favoring the north/northwest side of the cluster. The WPC forecast used a multi-model blend with heavier weighting toward the ECMWF and GFS initially and included the GEFS mean and EC mean by the start of the week and increased weighting to 45 percent by Thursday. This approach helped maintain continuity from the previous forecast. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Over the weekend precipitation is expected to focus in the Alaska Range and Southcentral into Southeast Alaska over the weekend and early next week with the upper and surface lows nearby. Appreciable rainfall totals over the course of multiple days however, Wet snow is possible in higher elevations of the Alaska Range. A front approaching, along with potential upper troughing coming into the Bering Sea and vicinity, could lead to rain chances across the Alaska Peninsula and western Mainland into next week, possibly spreading east across the Mainland. Temperatures will be on the rebound back towards normal over the weekend for much of the Mainland as upper ridging builds. Daily maximums will generally be in the 70s in most Interior areas. Temperatures may cool back down in the western Mainland early next week depending on the evolution of the upper trough. Southeast Alaska can expect temperatures to remain near to below average with the low in the vicinity and increased cloud cover. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html