Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 727 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 12Z Mon 28 Jul 2025 - 12Z Fri 01 Aug 2025 ...Overview... A closed low will remain over the Gulf of Alaska within an elongated trough through the extended period along with upper level ridging over the Aleutians and Bering. This blocky pattern will slow the lows progression along with weakening. Showers will spread across portions of the Interior and across the southern coast and Panhandle. Another low developing well west of the Aleutians by midweek may usher in precipitation to the Aleutians as early as Thursday. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The latest guidance remains very clustered with the Gulf of Alaska low and the associated surface low and frontal system. However there is a growing signal for another trough and possible closed low to develop over the North Pacific/western Bering Sea that will progress eastward toward the Aleutians. There is a significant amount of spread with the location, depth and timing of this feature. The means provided less noise but kept the general idea of a deepening low over this part of the globe. Given poor consensus, the confidence for sensible weather and QPF is below average for the Aleutians in the latter period. The WPC forecast used a multi-model blend initially and included the GEFS mean, NAEFS and EC means by Tuesday/Wednesday increasing weighting to 45 percent by Friday. This approach helped maintain continuity from the previous forecast while reduces the noise with the next feature. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Appreciable rainfall totals expected over the course of multiple days. Wet snow is possible in higher elevations of the Alaska Range. A front approaching, along with potential upper troughing coming into the Bering Sea and vicinity, could lead to rain chances across the Alaska Peninsula and western Mainland spreading east across the Mainland. A renewal of precipitation likely to the Aleutians later in the period. Daily maximums will generally be in the 70s in most Interior areas. Temperatures may cool back down in the western Mainland early next week depending on the evolution of the upper trough. Southeast Alaska can expect temperatures to remain near to below average with the low in the vicinity and increased cloud cover. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html