Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 746 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 29 Jul 2025 - 12Z Sat 02 Aug 2025 ...Overview... Much of mainland Alaska through the medium-range period next week appears to be sandwiched between a nearly stationary closed low over the Gulf of Alaska and a shortwave trough moving through northern mainland and lifting into the Arctic Ocean. Meanwhile, the ridge initially crossing the Aleutians into the Bering Sea is forecast to de-amplify with time as the next low pressure system should be sliding east into the Aleutians toward the end of next week. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The latest guidance remains well-clustered with the Gulf of Alaska low being nearly stationary or moves ever so slightly toward the southern coastline by the end of next week. Meanwhile, model guidance shows a good signal for the next significant cyclone and frontal system to reach the western portion of the Aleutians late next week but with a considerable amount of spread along a southwest to northeasterly direction. The ECMWF solutions are the quickest in comparison with the GFS and CMC regarding that system. The EC-AI adopts an even faster and more amplified solution. Elsewhere, there is noticeable spread in the deterministic guidance to the north of Alaska regarding the potential amplification of a frontal wave. However, ensemble means indicate a non-developing stationary front will remain draping across northern Alaskan mainland. The WPC forecast guidance leans toward the faster ECMWF solutions, with the majority of the forecast blend coming from the ensemble means toward the end of the forecast period. This approach maintains good continuity from the previous forecast. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Much of the precipitation across mainland Alaska for next week will likely be associated with the shortwave trough moving across northern Alaska where moderate rainfall can be expected along the Brooks Range through midweek. Occasional moderate rainfall can also be expected along the Alaska Range on the outer edge of the slow-moving cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska. While these rains may persist for a while, they are not expected to be heavy. Some wet snow may mix in at the highest elevations. Only occasional light rain is expected for portions of the southern coastline into the Panhandle. From midweek onward, a round of more appreciable rainfall is forecast to gradually overspread the Aleutians through the medium-range period. The associated low pressure system is forecast to move slowly east along the Aleutians but may amplify and move faster in advance as suggested by the EC-AI. Daily high temperatures are expected to remain below normal Tuesday and Wednesday across much of mainland Alaska with the passage of the shortwave trough along with clouds and rainfall. A state-wide warming trend is then forecast late next week. Elsewhere, warmer than normal conditions are expected to prevail across the Panhandle, the Northwest, and Southwest. The Aleutians will also be warmer than normal prior to the arrival of a front potentially next week. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html