Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 737 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 12Z Sat 02 Aug 2025 - 12Z Wed 06 Aug 2025 ...General Overview... The primary upper flow features to affect Alaska from this upcoming weekend into early next week will be a weakening low pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska, upper level ridging over the Interior and North Slope region, and closed low/trough emergence over the Aleutians and the Bering Sea. The latter will support development of a well organized southern Bering Sea surface low pressure system into the weekend whose dynamics and triple-point low development affect the North Pacific and the southern coastal areas going into next week. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance starts off in good overall agreement this weekend across the Alaska domain. Differences are apparent with the placement of the main upper low situated across the Bering Sea, with the GFS generally north or northwest of the model consensus going forward into early next week. The Canadian model becomes considerably stronger with a separate storm system moving in south of the Aleutians by next Tuesday/Wednesday and loses ensemble support, so it is reduced in the model blend by Tuesday. The ensemble means were increased to about half by next Wednesday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... An atmospheric river of enhanced moisture will lead to heavy rain across the eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula later this week and into Saturday. A relatively strong low pressure system is expected to bring higher winds and waves across the offshore waters in this area. The main low is forecast to settle over southern Bering Sea into the weekend. A triple point low is then likely to develop and then move into the Gulf from the weekend into early next week, with potential additional unsettled flow over the Gulf to coastal southern and Southeast Alaska. Warm temperatures are expected across much of the Interior and even across the North Slope going into the weekend with an upper ridge axis in place, with highs well into the 70s and even some lower 80s, and lows generally in the 50s. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html