Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
633 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
Valid 12Z Tue 05 Aug 2025 - 12Z Sat 09 Aug 2025
...Synoptic Overview...
A slow moving vertically stacked low over the Bering at the start
of the period will drift south across the Aleutians on Wednesday.
The low will then move east to around the Shumagins and AkPen,
where it will once again stall, likely as a trough for a day or
two before moving into mainland Alaska next weekend. A low near
the Panhandle Tuesday will move northeast into the interior
through Thursday, with ridging building in behind it. A weak front
or two from the western Gulf low may bring very light rain at
times late week to the Panhandle. Unsettled weather in the form
of multiple weak cold fronts will traverse the North Slope. As the
cold air behind it gradually builds, the chances for snow at the
higher elevations of the Brooks Range will increase into the
weekend.
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance was in good agreement on
the placement of the lows, both upper level and surface, as
compared with their typical output. Given this, an even blend of
these deterministics was used through Day 6, only gradually
blending in a bit of ensemble guidance for Days 7 and 8 (Fri and
Sat).
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
No hazardous weather is expected across Alaska over the upcoming
week. While local gap winds may approach gales near the AkPen as
the low intensifies south of the peninsula, this is far from out
of the ordinary and is unlikely to cause impacts. Most of the
rainfall from the low expected to impact the southern Panhandle
Tuesday into Wednesday is unlikely to reach as far north as Juneau
area, so only non-impactful rain is expected, followed by a drier
period from Thursday and beyond. For northern Alaska, a bit of
snow may fall into the Brooks Range late this week as a plunge of
colder air funnels down the Bering Strait and the North Slope, but
a lack of organization should keep snowfall amounts minimal and
likely confined to higher elevations as temperatures at low
elevations should be a bit too warm for most of the day with solar
heating helping curtail accumulations.
&&
Wegman
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html