Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 637 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 14 Aug 2025 - 12Z Mon 18 Aug 2025 ...General Overview... The pattern over Alaska should be quiet and stagnant by late week and especially next weekend as amplified ridges over the Bering Sea and central Canada keep troughing over the Alaska Mainland and into the Gulf. Low pressure meandering in the Gulf will keep shower chances along the Panhandle most days, with the heaviest rainfall expected Thursday-Friday as a frontal system weakens in the region. Across northern Alaska, weak shortwaves will rotate through the base of a deep low over the Arctic. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The current model and ensemble guidance continues to show excellent agreement on the large scale blocky and slow moving pattern over Alaska during the extended range. There are some differences in the details of individual weak shortwaves, some of which do not have much impact on sensible weather across the state. The most notable outlier was the UKMET which showed a stronger initial shortwave and surface low into the Gulf early period. The WPC forecast today used a blend of the ECMWF and GFS/CMC through about the first half of the period, increasing to about 60 percent ensemble means days 7 and 8 to help smooth out the smaller scale differences. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Rainfall will be ongoing by Thursday over the Mainland to Southern Coast area associated with a shortwave moving through the state. Moderate to locally heavy rain may be possible along the favored terrain. Conditions should mostly dry out by Friday and into the weekend, but some showers are possible as weak shortwaves rotate through northern Alaska. To the South, moderate rain over the Panhandle will accompany a cold front as it moves through the Gulf late this week, with rain becoming more widely scattered in nature by the weekend and into early next week. Temperature wise, conditions should be near to slightly below average by the end of the week into next weekend across much of the mainland, and near average for the most part for the southern coastal areas. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html