Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
639 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025
Valid 12Z Fri 29 Aug 2025 - 12Z Tue 02 Sep 2025
...Multi-Storm Heavy Rain/Flooding/Wind threats for Alaska fueled
by Atmospheric Rivers...
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian models and GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian
ensemble solutions now seem reasonably well clustered through
medium range time scales, bolstering forecast confidence in quite
the stormy pattern. Favor a composite trending blend weightings
increasingly toward the ensemble means over time as consistent
with predictability. WPC product continuity is well maintained.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A moisture pooling frontal system and amplified/supporting upper
trough will work eastward and inland over the mainland Friday
into Saturday to temporarily dampen ambient short range upper
ridging while sweeping unsettled conditions/organized rainfall
across the broad region. There is also a risk of enhanced snows
over elevations of the Brooks and Alaskan Range and some enhanced
gap wind flow. There will meanwhile be a lingering heavy rain
focus into SouthCentral Alaska with undercutting low energies,
especially with favored terrain, as fueled by the final vestiges
of a short range primed atmospheric river with tropical West
Pacific connections. The upper ridge should build back over the
Interior in the wake of system passage later weekend.
Upstream...there remains a strong signal to highlight development
and track of a deep storm across the Aleutians to the Bering Sea
Friday and the weekend to produce wrapping high winds/waves and
heavy rain threats given another long fetch moisture connection.
This protracted maritime threat will also work steadily
downstream to support another round of impactful weather by later
in the holiday weekend to include a wind/rain threat for
West/Southwest Alaska as well as with northern Gulf of Alaska
triple-point low formation to affect the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak
Island and SouthCentral Alaska into early next week.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html