Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
602 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Valid 12Z Mon 01 Sep 2025 - 12Z Fri 05 Sep 2025
...Labor Day Weekend Heavy Rain/Flooding/Wind Threats for
Southwest/Western Alaska...
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
Favor a composite of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models and
GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means solutions that seem reasonably
well clustered through medium-range time scales, bolstering
forecast confidence in the protracted mid-larger scale pattern
and associated threats. WPC product continuity is well maintained.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
The next big weather maker in a recent series of impactful storms
is slated to develop over the Bering Sea this weekend. This will
initially affect the Aleutians by Saturday with heavy rain and
strong winds, and then will affect western mainland Alaska going
into Sunday and through Labor Day and persisting into early-mid
next week. This will be accompanied by strong southerly flow that
will advect long fetch deep atmospheric river moisture northward
and bring periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall from the
Alaska Peninsula to Southwest/Western Alaska up to the western
Brooks Range where enhanced snows are expected. Coastal flooding
is also possible for areas near Bristol Bay and the Yukon Delta.
The overall inland wind threat will be maximized up through
Southwest/Western Alaska over the extended holiday weekend.
Meanwhile, southeast Alaska should enjoy a pleasant week ahead
overall as an upper ridge yields continued low rainfall
chances/benign weather.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html