Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 437 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 Valid 12Z Wed 10 Sep 2025 - 12Z Sun 14 Sep 2025 ...Rain and wind over the Aleutians into parts of coastal Southcentral Wed/Thu... ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Upper pattern over the high latitudes will transition from higher to lower amplitude from midweek into next weekend as a deep system near/southeast of the Aleutians weakens into the Gulf. Thereafter, upper ridging will build/hold over northwestern/northern Canada as well as into eastern Asia/Kamchatka, further anchoring troughing across the mainland/155W. The models have continued to converge toward a common solution (after a few days of stark disagreement) with the track of the lead-in system and a blend of the latest 12Z guidance offered a reasonable starting point. This should move the front into southeastern Alaska/Panhandle at a bit quicker pace than forecast 24 hrs ago, but perhaps lingering a bit near Haida Gwaii as it runs into ridging to its east. From Friday onward, the ensemble means all show troughing in roughly the same longitude but the deterministic models indicate potential for a minor shortwave to whisk southeastward on the backside of the trough into the northern/northeastern Pacific (south of 50N) and potentially spin up another system near/south/southeast of the Gulf of Alaska by next weekend. Confidence is low given the time range. A blend of the ensemble/deterministic models showed some signs of a system near or just north of 50N for now. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... With a central pressure in the high 970s or low 980s, the system near the Aleutians should promote gusty winds over favored areas across the archipelago and perhaps toward the AKPen, with modest to heavier rain eastward across coastal Southcentral to around Yakutat. This area will see the greatest moisture surge ahead of the cold front combined with enhanced lift from the terrain. Modest NW flow around the surface low could enhance gap winds through the Aleutians as well on Wednesday. Rainfall totals of a few inches are possible along the coast with several inches (3-6"+) toward Yakutat per the NBM. For the rest of the Interior, scattered showers will linger through the period thanks to lingering upper troughing. Temperatures will be below normal over the North slope, but near to above normal over the rest of the state to start to period. Then, temperatures will trend to near to below normal over much of the mainland. Areas of the southeastern Alaska to the Panhandle will see above normal temperatures ahead of the front that only cool slightly into next weekend. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html