Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
601 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Valid 12Z Wed 17 Sep 2025 - 12Z Sun 21 Sep 2025
...Multi-day SouthCentral to Southeast Alaska Heavy Rain/Flooding
Threat Next Week...
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
Model and ensemble solutions seem reasonably well clustered
through medium-range time scales, bolstering confidence in the
forecast of quite the energetic and stormy pattern with overall
above normal predictablity. Favor a composite blend of the 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means to
mitigate smaller scale embedded system differences consistent
with individual predictability to help WPC product continuity.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Expect a continued series of deepened low pressure systems mid-
later next week into next weekend to bring high winds across the
Aleutians/Southern Bering Sea to then moderately impact Southwest
Alaska and the Alaskan Peninsula. Guidance signals are growing in
support for the deepest moisture plumes to focus repeat periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall and high winds from Kodiak Island to
especially the Kenai Peninsula/SouthCentral Alaska and Southeast
Alaska. More details of collaborated threats are linked below
including for our WPC Hazards Outlook product.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html