Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 744 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 28 Sep 2025 - 12Z Thu 02 Oct 2025 ***Unsettled weather pattern continues for southern and southeast Alaska with multiple rounds of rain and mountain snow*** ...General Overview... An amplified shortwave dropping southeastward from eastern Siberia is forecast to cross the southwestern mainland and re- energize the existing Gulf low for the weekend. The next system will likely approach the Aleutians going into Sunday and Monday, and an arctic trough is likely to persist for the northern third of the state as well. Meanwhile, an upper ridge axis likely extends north to the Bering Strait by the middle of next week. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z models feature reasonably good agreement on the synoptic scale for the weekend, but model spread increases substantially going into the middle of next week with incoming shortwave energy from the western Pacific. Given the increased uncertainty in the deterministic guidance, more reliance was placed on the ensemble means for this forecast package by early-mid next week, accounting for about 60% of the blend by next Wednesday-Thursday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The next low pressure system will bring the likelihood for more unsettled weather for southern coastal areas of Alaska and the southeast Panhandle this weekend, bringing periods of rain and mountain snow from the Kenai Peninsula and points eastward. The next system to watch will track close to the Aleutians on Monday, and this could be the eventual remnants of what is currently Typhoon Neoguri. In terms of temperatures, colder conditions will be commonplace across most of the mainland, with subfreezing overnight lows widespread across the Interior, and 10s near the Brooks Range. The greater Anchorage area may have overnight lows that approach the freezing mark at times, and locations near the Pacific coast in the low-mid 40s. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html