Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 750 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Valid 12Z Mon 29 Sep 2025 - 12Z Fri 03 Oct 2025 ...Former Typhoon Neoguri could bring high winds and locally heavy rain for the Aleutians into the southern Alaska Peninsula Monday to Tuesday... ...General Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The medium-range period should begin with an occluded cyclone passing close to the Aleutian Islands early next week. This cyclone, which has transitioned from a former typhoon named Neoguri by then, could bring a period of high winds and locally heavy rain for the Aleutians into the southern Alaska Peninsula from Monday into Tuesday. The 12Z ECMWF and CMC indicate the most robust solutions, with the cyclone center brushing just south of the island chain. The EC-AI runs, however, track the cyclone at a fair distance away from the Aleutians, a solution supported by the latest 18Z GFS run. A High Wind area is depicted on the WPC Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook chart assuming a cyclone track similar to what the ECMWF and CMC indicate. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to weaken as it slides east toward the Gulf of Alaska and links up with the remnant vorticities coming from the Bering Sea low. There is a fair amount of model spread regarding the timing and placement of the individual low pressure waves. By late next week, ensemble mean solutions show decent agreement on a fairly large but modestly deep cyclone to be centered over the Gulf of Alaska. Farther north, models show a relatively weak upper-trough lingering across northern Alaska, with the EC mean keeping this wave in place well into next week longer than other model guidance as an omega block emerges over the Arctic Ocean. No active weather is forecast to associate with this upper trough. The WPC forecast package for Alaska was based on a consensus blend of 40% from the 12Z EC/00Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS mean, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean, with the majority of the blend coming from the ensemble means toward the end of the forecast period. This blend yielded a solution similar to yesterday's WPC forecast package except a better-defined cyclone tracking near the Aleutians for early in the forecast period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... If former Typhoon Neoguri tracks as forecast by the ECMWF and CMC, the Aleutians into the southern Alaska peninsula can expect a period of high winds and locally heavy rain from Monday into Tuesday. Thereafter, some modest amounts of precipitation are expected to edge into the southwestern and southern coastal areas and eventually into the Panhandle for the rest of next week. For the rest of Alaska, other than some snow showers near the western and eastern ends of the North Slope early next week, benign weather is forecast to prevail across interior mainland Alaska into the Brooks Range and North Slope. In terms of temperatures, colder conditions will be commonplace, with subfreezing overnight lows widespread across the Interior, and 10s near the Brooks Range. The greater Anchorage area may have overnight lows that approach the freezing mark early next week. Meanwhile, near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for all of the southern coastline including the Aleutians and Panhandle with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s next week. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html