Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 742 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 30 Sep 2025 - 12Z Sat 04 Oct 2025 ...General Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Since yesterday, model guidance for the Alaskan domain has switched to a synoptic pattern evolution that contains notable differences from yesterday's model consensus. First of all, the compact cyclone in connection with former Typhoon Neoguri is no longer forecast to brush the Aleutians early next week but is now forecast to pass well to the south and dissipate instead. This scenario was first advertised by the EC-AIFS a day earlier. Other differences of note since yesterday is a stronger Bering Sea low midweek next week to bring precipitation farther inland across western and southwestern Alaska. Model consensus today also shows this Bering cyclone to have a closer link to the southern stream flow across the North Pacific, which is also a scenario depicted earlier by the EC-AIFS. By late next week, there is good agreement among the ensemble means for a relatively large and deep cyclone to move northeastward into the Bering Sea. Farther north, models show a relatively weak upper-trough lingering across northern Alaska, with a col remaining over the Arctic Ocean under a stagnant synoptic pattern. No active weather is forecast to associate with this upper trough. The WPC forecast package for Alaska was based on a consensus blend of 40% from the 12Z EC/00Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS mean, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean, with the majority of the blend coming from the ensemble means toward the end of the forecast period. This blend has noticeable differences than yesterday's WPC forecast package as discussed earlier. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A round of light to moderate precipitation is forecast to spread from northwest to southeast across western and southwestern Alaska through midweek as a Bering Sea cyclone edges closer to the region before sliding into the Gulf of Alaska by late next week. The western portion of the Brooks Range can expect snow. The moderate rainfall should progress along the southern coastline into the Panhandle by late next week with snow possible for the Alaska Range. By late next week, increasing winds and unsettled weather can be expected to sweep across the Aleutians, possibly reaching the west coast of Alaska on Friday as the large cyclone is forecast to move into the Bering Sea. For the remainder of Alaska, other than some snow showers the eastern end of the North Slope early next week, benign weather is forecast to prevail across eastern interior but the chance of precipitation across the western and central interior has increased due to the approach of a stronger Bering Sea low midweek. In terms of temperatures, colder conditions will be commonplace, with subfreezing overnight lows widespread across the Interior, and 10s near the Brooks Range. The greater Anchorage area may have overnight lows that approach the freezing mark early next week. Meanwhile, near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for all of the southern coastline including the Aleutians and Panhandle with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s next week. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html