Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 755 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Valid 12Z Mon 06 Oct 2025 - 12Z Fri 10 Oct 2025 ...Widespread high wind threat from the Aleutians to the West Coast middle and late next week... ...Synoptic Overview... Back-to-back deep cyclones are forecast to track across the Bering Sea through the medium-range period as we head deeper into October. Widespread gale to locally storm-force southerly winds appear possible from the Aleutians to western mainland Alaska around mid-week next week ahead of a deep and expansive Bering Sea cyclone. Another deep cyclone appears to follow right on its heels as there is already above average model ensemble support for the cyclone to reach the western Bering Sea together with a potent cold front sweeping through the Aleutians late next week. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Despite increasing spread among operational deterministic model solutions toward the end of the medium-range forecast period, global model ensemble means exhibit above average consensus on the timing and location of two deep cyclones that are forecast to track generally across western Bering Sea toward the Bering Straight even out to Day 8. Thus, a consensus blend of the ensemble means mixing with some of the deterministic blend form the basis of today's WPC blend for the Alaskan domain (40% from the 12Z EC/00Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS mean, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean), with a higher percentage coming from the ensemble means toward Day 8. This blend yielded a more progressive solution to the synoptic-scale weather systems as compared with yesterday's WPC forecasts. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A cyclone crossing the Bering Sea in the short-range forecast period should be rapidly weakening in the Bering Straight as the medium-range period begins Monday morning. Light to moderate precipitation will likely linger across much of western mainland, especially the western Brooks Range. Meanwhile, ahead of a weakening triple-point low over the Gulf of Alaska, heavy rain remains possible at the lower elevations under upslope flow against the coastal ranges. From around Prince William Sound eastward to Yakutat, several inches of rainfall can be expected. Higher elevation snow will also impact the mountains but freezing levels will remain high enough that the passes will not be affected. A heavy precipitation hazard area is maintained for Sunday-Monday on the WPC Hazards chart with a slight southward expansion into the northern Panhandle. The next system crossing the far western Aleutians will intensify in tandem with a strong high pressure system over the northeastern Pacific, leading to a broadening and strengthening fetch of southerly flow by midweek next week for much of the Aleutians and spreading up into western Alaska with increasing precipitation and coastal flooding concerns. A High Wind hazard area has been introduced for western Alaska for Wednesday to Thursday of next week. By late next week, another deep cyclone appears to emerge over the western Bering Sea together with a rather potent cold front that is forecast to sweep from west to east across the Aleutians. Temperatures look to remain near to above normal through the period for nearly the entire state. Daytime highs could be 10 to 20 degrees above normal in some spots, especially earlier in the period. This equates to upper 20s to the 30s for the North Slope and 50s and 60s farther south near the Southern Coast. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html