Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 752 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 7 Oct 2025 - 12Z Sat 11 Oct 2025 ...Widespread high wind threat from the Aleutians to the West Coast middle and late next week... ...Synoptic Overview... An active weather pattern will be in place across the Alaska domain for next week, particularly for the Bering Sea region and western mainland Alaska. A strong low pressure system is forecast to approach the western part of the state on Wednesday with strong southerly winds ahead of it, followed by a potentially stronger storm by next weekend over the Bering Sea. Meanwhile, improving conditions develop over the Gulf region and the southern coastal areas as high pressure develops over the Gulf for much of next week. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite features decent overall synoptic scale agreement across most regions of the Alaska domain to begin the forecast period Tuesday, with the greatest differences noted across the Bering with the timing and configuration of the first Bering storm system. More model spread becomes evident across the Bering and Aleutians for the timing and intensity of the second system by the end of the period, with the ensemble means serving as a good starting point in the forecast process. However, the signal for this event is strong even 7 to 8 days out, so it's something that will be closely monitored in the days ahead. The most confident aspect of the forecast is the ridge axis across the Gulf region. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The next system crossing the far western Aleutians will intensify in tandem with a strong high pressure system over the northeastern Pacific, leading to a broadening and strengthening fetch of southerly flow by the middle of next week for much of the Aleutians and spreading up into western Alaska with increasing precipitation and coastal flooding concerns. A high wind hazard area has been maintained for western Alaska for Wednesday to Thursday of next week. By next Saturday, another deep cyclone appears to emerge over the western Bering Sea together with a rather potent cold front that is forecast to sweep from west to east across the Aleutians, with additional strong winds likely, but confidence is not quite high enough yet to delineate any wind hazard areas for this event. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to above normal through the period for nearly the entire state. Daytime highs could be 10 to 20 degrees above normal in some spots, especially earlier in the period. This equates to upper 20s to the 30s for the North Slope, and 50s to near 60 degrees farther south near the Southern Coast. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html