Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
752 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Valid 12Z Tue 7 Oct 2025 - 12Z Sat 11 Oct 2025
...Widespread high wind threat from the Aleutians to the West
Coast middle and late next week...
...Synoptic Overview...
An active weather pattern will be in place across the Alaska
domain for next week, particularly for the Bering Sea region and
western mainland Alaska. A strong low pressure system is forecast
to approach the western part of the state on Wednesday with strong
southerly winds ahead of it, followed by a potentially stronger
storm by next weekend over the Bering Sea. Meanwhile, improving
conditions develop over the Gulf region and the southern coastal
areas as high pressure develops over the Gulf for much of next
week.
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
The 12Z model guidance suite features decent overall synoptic
scale agreement across most regions of the Alaska domain to begin
the forecast period Tuesday, with the greatest differences noted
across the Bering with the timing and configuration of the first
Bering storm system. More model spread becomes evident across the
Bering and Aleutians for the timing and intensity of the second
system by the end of the period, with the ensemble means serving
as a good starting point in the forecast process. However, the
signal for this event is strong even 7 to 8 days out, so it's
something that will be closely monitored in the days ahead. The
most confident aspect of the forecast is the ridge axis across the
Gulf region.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
The next system crossing the far western Aleutians will intensify
in tandem with a strong high pressure system over the
northeastern Pacific, leading to a broadening and strengthening
fetch of southerly flow by the middle of next week for much of
the Aleutians and spreading up into western Alaska with increasing
precipitation and coastal flooding concerns. A high wind hazard
area has been maintained for western Alaska for Wednesday to
Thursday of next week. By next Saturday, another deep cyclone
appears to emerge over the western Bering Sea together with a
rather potent cold front that is forecast to sweep from west to
east across the Aleutians, with additional strong winds likely,
but confidence is not quite high enough yet to delineate any wind
hazard areas for this event.
Temperatures are forecast to remain near to above normal through
the period for nearly the entire state. Daytime highs could be 10
to 20 degrees above normal in some spots, especially earlier in
the period. This equates to upper 20s to the 30s for the North
Slope, and 50s to near 60 degrees farther south near the Southern
Coast.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html