Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 526 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 09 Oct 2025 - 12Z Mon 13 Oct 2025 ...Aleutians to Interior Alaska/North Slope High Wind and Heavy Rain Threat through midweek... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Guidance seems well clustered valid Thursday into Saturday in an energetic and stormy pattern with above normal predictability. Favor a mainly 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model blend. Significant uncertainty develops into longer time frames with respect to the ejection of current West Pacific Tropical Storm Halong into the westerlies and toward Alaska next weekend with no clear guidance signal favored, albeit with some continuity trend towards progression in the official forecast. Prefer to increasingly rely on compatible 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means guidance with limited model input amid rapidly growing forecast spread and uncertainty, but with impactful storm potential to monitor. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A stormy weather pattern will remain across parts of the Alaska domain this week in an overall quite warm pattern. Active weather should particularly focus from the Aleutians and Bering Sea through Western/Southwest through much of Interior Alaska and the North Slope, including enhanced gap/terrain enhanced winds. A strong low pressure system will work through the northern Mainland through midweek with strong winds and lingering moderate to heavy rainfall fueling moisture plume in advance working rapidly and broadly inland. Upper trough energy splitting underneath over the northern Gulf of Alaska could also act to focus modest mid-late week low pressure development with some precipitation/unsettled weather working inland into and across southern/southeast Alaska. Upstream, there is an uncertain but potentially stronger storm heading into next weekend over the Aleutians and Bering Sea with another threat for high winds/waves with approach toward the mainland extending into early next week. This potentially deepened extratropical low should have favorable upper support and connection to Halong. The approach offers an ample maritime threat and may then prove impactful from Southwest Alaska through the Alaskan southern tier. All aforementioned threats are shown on the collaborated WPC Hazards Outlook product linked below. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html